Singapore Inflation Rate 2025: Core Average 0.7% – Data & Outlook

Eight data points, one pattern: Singapore’s inflation story in 2025 is the steepest single-year retreat in MAS Core series history — and the rebound expected over the next two years remains modest by recent standards.

What is the current inflation rate in Singapore?

December 2025 core inflation

• MAS Core Inflation stood at 1.2% year-on-year in December 2025, unchanged from November (MTI (Singapore Ministry of Trade and Industry)).
• CPI-All Items also came in at 1.2% year-on-year for December, with a 0.3% month-on-month increase (MTI).
• On a month-on-month basis, core prices rose 0.4% in December (MTI).

The implication: December’s data confirmed that the low-inflation environment had stabilised heading into 2026. The month-on-month uptick in core prices was mild but consistent with a floor forming around 1%.

Full-year 2025 average

• MAS Core Inflation averaged 0.7% for the whole of 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024 (MTI).
• CPI-All Items inflation averaged 0.9% in 2025, compared with 2.4% in 2024 (MTI).
• Both figures were in line with forecasts from the MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters, which had projected 0.7% and 0.9% for core and headline respectively in both the September and December 2025 rounds (MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters: December 2025).

The pattern: 2025 delivered exactly what forecasters had predicted — an unusually fast cooldown. The 2.1-percentage-point drop from 2024 was the largest single-year decline in the MAS Core series.

The implication: December’s data confirmed that the low-inflation environment had stabilised heading into 2026. The month-on-month uptick in core prices was mild but consistent with a floor forming around 1%.

What is the expected rate of inflation in 2025?

Official MTI/MAS projections

• The MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters in June 2025 had already cut its 2025 CPI-All Items forecast to 0.9%, down from 1.7% in March (MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters: June 2025).
• By September and December, the survey locked in 0.9% headline and 0.7% core for the full year (MAS September 2025 Survey).
• MAS’s October 2025 Consumer Price Developments report projected MAS Core Inflation at around 0.5% for the year — a slightly lower estimate that proved marginally too pessimistic (MAS October 2025 report).

Why this matters: The official projections were remarkably stable from mid-2025 onward, signalling that the disinflation process had become predictable. That predictability gave businesses and households confidence to plan around stable prices.

Comparison with 2024 data

• 2024 core inflation: 2.8% — more than double the 2025 outturn (MTI).
• 2025 core inflation: 0.7% — a 75% reduction year-on-year.
• CPI-All Items fell from 2.4% to 0.9% over the same period.

The trade-off: The sharp disinflation came at the cost of slower nominal GDP growth, but real household incomes improved as wage growth stayed above inflation in most sectors.

What is the inflation outlook for Singapore in 2026?

MAS forward guidance

• In February 2026, MAS projected MAS Core Inflation and CPI-All Items to average 1.0%–2.0% for the year (MAS February 2026 report).
• The December 2025 Survey of Professional Forecasters put the 2026 median at 1.5% for headline and 1.3% for core (MAS December 2025 Survey).
• MAS’s March 2026 Survey expected Q1 2026 core to come in at 1.6% (MAS March 2026 Survey).

The pattern: Forecasters see inflation returning to the 1.5%–2.0% band that MAS considers consistent with medium-term price stability. That’s a normalisation, not a surge.

Market expectations

• Forward inflation swaps and bond market pricing suggest the market expects the MAS to keep the SGD NEER on a gradual appreciation path.
• A strong SGD — which hit 1.27 per USD in April 2026 — is itself a disinflationary force, reducing the cost of imported food, oil, and intermediate goods.

Impact of SGD strength

Singapore’s exchange-rate-centred monetary policy means the currency’s strength directly suppresses imported inflation. With the SGD at an 11-year high against the USD in April 2026 (TradingView (market data)), the cost of imported goods falls, which in turn keeps a lid on both headline and core CPI.

The catch: A very strong SGD also squeezes export competitiveness, especially for electronics and precision engineering. The MAS must balance price stability against external demand — a tightrope that becomes more delicate as inflation normalises.

The catch: A very strong SGD also squeezes export competitiveness, especially for electronics and precision engineering. The MAS must balance price stability against external demand — a tightrope that becomes more delicate as inflation normalises.

How does Singapore calculate inflation?

CPI methodology

• Singapore’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is compiled by the Department of Statistics (SingStat) and published monthly by MTI.
• It covers a fixed basket of goods and services weighted by household expenditure patterns, broken down by income group (lowest 20%, middle 60%, highest 20%).
• The basket is updated periodically to reflect changes in consumption habits.

Why this matters: Because the CPI is disaggregated by income level, low-income households — who spend a larger share on food and utilities — experience different inflation rates from higher-income households. In 2025, food inflation remained stickier than the headline core number suggests.

MAS Core Inflation definition

• MAS Core Inflation excludes accommodation costs (rental imputation) and private road transport (car prices and petrol).
• These two items are volatile and heavily influenced by supply-side factors (COE premiums, property cycles) rather than underlying demand conditions.
• The core measure is the one MAS uses to guide its monetary policy stance.

Data sources (SingStat, MTI)

• Primary data: SingStat’s retail price surveys, administrative data from government agencies.
• Publication: MTI’s monthly “Consumer Price Developments” press release, typically around the 23rd of each month.
• Historical database: Available on SingStat’s website back to 1960.

The pattern: Singapore’s inflation measurement is transparent and income‑segregated, allowing observers to see how different groups are affected — a valuable lens for policy evaluation.

Is the Singapore dollar getting stronger in 2026?

Currency appreciation and inflation impact

• The SGD traded at 1.27 per USD in April 2026, an 11-year high (TradingView (market data)).
• The MAS operates a managed float for the SGD, targeting a gradual appreciation against a trade-weighted basket to keep imported inflation low.
• A stronger SGD reduces the SGD price of imported goods, directly lowering both headline and core CPI components such as food, oil, and machinery.

The pattern: The SGD’s strength in 2026 is partly endogenous — low domestic inflation attracts capital inflows, which push the currency higher. This creates a self-reinforcing disinflationary loop.

Historical context

• The last time the SGD was this strong was during the post-GFC period of 2011–2014.
• Over the long run (1980–2025), Singapore’s inflation rate has fallen by 7.64 percentage points, driven in large part by a steadily appreciating currency (Statista (historical data)).
• A 4% inflation rate — sometimes cited as a threshold — is far above Singapore’s current trajectory. The highest inflation Singapore saw in the 2020s was 6.1% in 2022, and that was driven by global supply shocks.

The implication: A strong SGD has been Singapore’s main tool for keeping inflation low over decades, and the 2026 high reinforces that long‑term trend, though it now pinches exporters.

Timeline: Key events in Singapore’s 2025 inflation story

The calendar of key developments illustrates the rapid disinflation that took place over the course of 2025 and into early 2026.

The timeline shows that the disinflation was largely forecast in advance, with only the October MAS projection missing by a small margin. The SGD appreciation in April 2026 added a new dimension to the outlook.

What’s confirmed and what’s still unclear

Confirmed facts

• MAS Core Inflation averaged 0.7% in 2025 — confirmed by MTI release on 23 January 2026 (MTI).
• December 2025 core inflation stood at 1.2% — confirmed by the same release.
• Full-year 2025 CPI-All Items inflation was 0.9% — confirmed by MTI and Statista (Statista).
• SGD reached 1.27 per USD in April 2026 — confirmed by market data (TradingView).
• MAS projected 2026 core inflation at 1.0%–2.0% — confirmed in February 2026 report (MAS).

What’s still unclear

• Exact timing of MAS monetary policy adjustment for 2026 — not yet announced.
• Whether the 0.7% core inflation floor has been reached or further decline is possible — depends on global commodity prices and domestic demand.
• Specific impact of global commodity prices on Singapore’s 2026 inflation — remains outside MAS control.
• Whether the MAS will adjust its exchange rate policy in the October 2026 review — no signal yet.
• How long the low inflation environment will persist before returning to the 2% target — uncertain.
• The extent to which global oil prices will affect Singapore’s transport costs in 2026 — depends on external factors.

The pattern: Official data has been unusually precise, leaving only the macro‑policy response and external shocks as genuine unknowns.

Quotes from official sources

“MAS Core Inflation came in at 0.7% for 2025 as a whole, down from 2.8% in 2024.”

— MTI spokesperson, Consumer Price Developments in December 2025 (MTI, Singapore Ministry of Trade and Industry)

“CPI-All Items inflation averaged 0.9% in 2025, down from 2.4% in 2024.”

— MTI spokesperson, same release

“The December 2025 Survey of Professional Forecasters projects 2026 MAS Core Inflation at a median of 1.3%.”

— MAS, Survey of Professional Forecasters: December 2025 (MAS, Monetary Authority of Singapore)

These official statements confirm that the disinflation was both broad‑based and widely anticipated, with only minor deviations between projections and outturns.

What it all means

The 2025 inflation data tells a story of successful disinflation — the kind central banks elsewhere can only envy. But success brings its own challenges: a very strong SGD that pressures exporters, and the risk that inflation stays too low for too long. For households, the immediate relief is real: real wage growth turned positive in 2025. For investors, the question is whether the MAS will begin to loosen its exchange rate policy as inflation normalises. For Singapore’s trade-dependent economy, the choice is clear: accept a strong currency and manage the export headwind, or ease policy and risk importing inflation again.

Frequently asked questions

These FAQs cover the most common reader questions, from methodology to global comparisons, providing a complete reference for understanding Singapore’s inflation environment.

Related reading

• S&CC Rebate 2026: Eligibility, Amount and Dates — direct government support for households facing cost-of-living pressures.
• City Developments Share Price: Buy or Sell — how inflation and interest rates shape the outlook for Singapore’s property sector.